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MARKET OVERVIEW U.S. Canada U.K. Germany Japan China
Economy Expanding Recovering Recovering Recovering Expanding Expanding
Stocks Ca Bu Ca Br Ca Br Ca Bu Ca Br Ca Bu
Performance 2012 +1.9% -3.2% -4.0% +7.5% +1.5% +1.5%
Current Cycle Oct-3 +17.3% +1.7% +3.7% +16.9% +0.01% +11.7%
Current Trend Correction Possibly Br Possibly Br Correction Possibly Br Correction
USD Currency - Ca Bu Ca Bu Ca Bu Ca Br
updated May-27. source data: BEA, OECD, Bloomberg

Tuesday, October 11, 2011

Mechel OAO Earnings Q2 2011: Sales Up 18%

Mechel OAA (MTL) net revenue in 2Q 2011 increased by 18.3% and amounted to $3.5 billion compared to $2.9 billion in 1Q 2011. The operating income rose by 6.2% and amounted to $476.3 million or 13.72% of the net revenue, compared to the operating income of $448.4 million or 15.28% of the net revenue in 1Q 2011.

In 2Q 2011, Mechel's consolidated net income attributable to shareholders of Mechel OAO decreased by 37.9% to $191.9 million compared to the consolidated net income attributable to shareholders of Mechel OAO of $309.1 million in 1Q 2011.

The consolidated adjusted EBITDA in 2Q 2011 increased by 8.0% to $612.3 million, compared to $566.9 million in 1Q 2011. Depreciation, depletion and amortization in 2Q 2011 for the Company were $138.6 million, a decrease of 1.2% compared to $140.2 million in 1Q 2011.

MTL shares currently trading at $11.14, well below the 50-day moving average of $16.09 and 200-day moving average of $25.36 in a 180-day cycle. The shares broke through that support in early August and early June, respectively. Next support level would be $7.50. Last 4 of 5 trading days have closed higher, RSI is 38.91 and MACD has crossed signaling line. Basic Materials Sector is up 13.5% during the past week, one of the strongest performances among all sectors. Within the sector, Iron & Steel, which includes MTL, is up 16.83%, fourth best among the 10 industries within the Basic Materials Sector. MTL shares are fourth best stock during the past week at 20.82% in the Iron & Steel Industry. Will MTL's bullish trend continue? It depends on the overall market and this current volatility. The market did appreciate aggressively last week so I am wary of a pullback. However, with a price-earnings ratio of 5.3x, continue earnings, and moderating steel prices MTL's current price is an excellent entry position for the longer term view. For a shorter term view, watch for resistance at $12 then if the price leap frogs, that could be good entry point.

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